Guerra e deterrenza

Abstract

The war in Ukraine turns the confrontation between East and West into an open conflict containing the possibility of a nuclear escalation. During the Cold War the principle of deterrence based on mutual assured destruction (MAD) worked sufficiently. Any nuclear attack by one of the superpowers USA and USSR could not have prevented the other to respond with an equally destructive counterattack, thus making a nuclear war “unthinkable”. Game theory applied by T. Schelling and others to strategic relationships showed the utility of reconstructing the enemy’s point of view in mixed competition/collaboration games. Deterrence is currently being eroded by factors such as international terrorism, the rise of nationalism, and the improper use of the nuclear threat in a conventional theatre by Putin. Only the renewed awareness of the need for a collaborative game may avoid generalized conflict.