Setting Road Safety Targets in Cambodia: A Methodological Demonstration Using the Latent Risk Time Series Model

Abstract

We present the methodology used for estimating forecasts for the number of road traffic fatalities in 2011–2020 in Cambodia based on observed developments in Cambodian road traffic fatalities and motor vehicle ownership in the years 1995–2009. Using the latent risk time series model baseline forecasts for the fatality risk were estimated for the years 2010–2020. These baseline forecasts were then used to obtain estimates for the future number of fatalities based on three scenarios for the future Cambodian growth in motor vehicle ownership: a low, a middle, and a high growth scenario. The middle growth scenario results in an expected death toll of approximately 3,200 in 2020. In 2010, it was therefore decided in Cambodia to set the target at a 50% reduction of this number or 1,600 fatalities in 2020. If it is possible to achieve this target by taking additional actions to improve road safety, then a total of 7,350 lives could be saved in Cambodia over the whole 2011–2020 period.