Research on a Coal Seam Gas Content Prediction Method Based on an Improved Extreme Learning Machine

Abstract

With the rapid advancement of artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, many researchers have applied these methods to mine gas prediction and achieved numerous research achievements. It is of great significance to study methods that can accurately predict the gas content for the prevention of gas disasters in mining areas. In order to enhance the accuracy, stability, and generalization capability of the gas content prediction model, the GASA-KELM prediction model was established using the GASA algorithm to improve the KELM initial parameter assignment method, and the prediction model based on BPNN and SVM was established under the same conditions. The experimental results show that the GASA-BPNN model failed to achieve the desired outcome within 800 iterations. On the other hand, the GASA-SVM and GASA-KELM models accomplished the goal in significantly fewer iterations, taking only 673 and 487 iterations, respectively. Moreover, the overall average relative errors of the cross-validated gas content predictions were 15.74%, 13.85%, and 9.87% for the three models, respectively. Furthermore, the total average variance of the test set was 3.99, 2.76, and 2.05 for the GASA-BPNN, GASA-SVM, and GASA-KELM models, respectively. As a result, compared with other ANN models, the GASA-KELM model demonstrates higher accuracy, stronger prediction stability, and generalization ability in the practical application. This novel model provides a basis for accurately predicting gas content and proposing effective regional gas management measures.

Keywords

• gas content prediction
• BP neural network (BPNN)
• support vector machine (SVM)
• kernel extreme learning machine (KELM)