Predicting the trend of leptospirosis in China via a stochastic model with vector and environmental transmission

Abstract

A stochastic model of leptospirosis with vector and environmental transmission is established in this paper. By mathematical analysis of the model, the threshold for eliminating the disease is obtained. The partial rank correlation coefficient was used to analyze the parameters that have a greater impact on disease elimination, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted on the parameters through numerical simulation. Further, combined with the data of leptospirosis case reports in China from 2003 to 2021, two parameter estimation methods, Least Squares method (LSM) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo-Metropolis Hastings method (MCMC-MH), are applied to estimate the important parameters of the model and the future trend of leptospirosis in China are predicted.

Keywords

• stochastic epidemic model
• leptospirosis
• disease elimination
• parameter estimation
• disease prediction