An improved prediction method of water consumption rate considering aftereffects for short-term dispatching of hydropower station

Abstract

Accurate and rapid output calculation of hydropower station (HS) is an important research item in reservoir dispatching neighborhood. There have existed many methods to calculate output in generation scheduling models with different time scale. But for the large HS with multiple units, it is still difficult to calculate output quickly and accurately in short-term generation dispatching. Therefore, in this paper, an improved method of water consumption rate (IWCR) considering aftereffects is proposed. The Three Gorges Hydropower Station (TGHS) in China is selected as the case study, and the prediction water consumption rate (WCR) results are obtained with IWCR and classical water consumption rate method (CWCR). The results show that 1) The mean absolute deviation (MAD) on the left and right bank of TGHS is significantly superior to the MAD calculated by CWCR, and reduce 0.578 m3/(s.wkw) and 0.569 m3/(s.wkw) respectively. 2) In low relative deviation interval, there are more prediction WCR periods with IWCR. Therefore, the IWCR method can lead to the plan scheme more consistent with actual operation process, and the security of TGHS and Gezhouba is stronger.