Reconstruction of long-term water temperature indicates significant warming in Polish rivers during 1966–2020

Abstract

Study region: The study region comprises 125 water gauges from 70 rivers covering the whole territory of Poland. Study focus: The air2stream model was used to reconstruct daily river water temperature (RWT) from 125 water gauges in 70 Polish rivers for the period 1966–2020 (55 years). Then, the annual and seasonal warming trends of RWT, and a biologically relevant metric (the annual number of days when water temperature exceeded 20 °C) were evaluated. New hydrological insights for the region: The modelling results showed that the air2stream model performed well for RWT modeling (the averaged Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values for the calibration and validation periods are 1.21 and 1.32 °C, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) for the two periods are 0.96 and 0.95 respectively). Annual averaged RWT of 121 gauges (96.8 % of the 125 gauges) showed clear warming trend in the past 55 years with the warming rate ranging between 0.08 and 0.44 °C/decade (average: 0.25 °C/decade). The warming trends of river waters on the main rivers and their tributaries are spatially differentiated. Seasonal RWT trends showed that summer is warming fastest, followed by spring and then by autumn and winter. Long-term increases in RWT were typically correlated with increases in air temperatures. For the three large rivers (Vistula, Odra, and Warta), the biologically relevant metric (the annual number of days when water temperature exceeded 20 °C) increased synchronously with the warming of RWT. The results reported in this study will be useful to stakeholders and the reconstructed dataset will be useful to the community for the further study of river thermal dynamics and aquatic habitats in Poland.

Keywords

• River water temperature
• Reconstruction
• Climate change
• Trends analysis
• air2stream
• Poland