Evidence of pandemic fatigue associated with stricter tiered COVID-19 restrictions.

Abstract

Despite the availability of effective vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, non-pharmaceutical interventions remain an important part of the effort to reduce viral circulation caused by emerging variants with the capability of evading vaccine-induced immunity. With the aim of striking a balance between effective mitigation and long-term sustainability, several governments worldwide have adopted systems of tiered interventions, of increasing stringency, that are calibrated according to periodic risk assessments. A key challenge remains in quantifying temporal changes in adherence to interventions, which can decrease over time due to pandemic fatigue, under such kind of multilevel strategies. Here, we examine whether there was a reduction in adherence to tiered restrictions that were imposed in Italy from November 2020 through May 2021, and in particular we assess whether temporal trends in adherence depended on the intensity of the restrictions adopted. We analyzed daily changes in movements and in residential time, combining mobility data with the restriction tier enforced in the Italian regions. Through mixed-effects regression models, we identified a general trend of reduction in adherence and an additional effect of faster waning associated with the most stringent tier. We estimated both effects being of the same order of magnitude, suggesting that adherence decreased twice as fast during the strictest tier as in the least stringent one. Our results provide a quantitative measure of behavioral responses to tiered interventions-a metric of pandemic fatigue-that can be integrated into mathematical models to evaluate future epidemic scenarios.