The Waves and Cycles of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Phase Synchronization Approach

Abstract

This study pretends to contribute to a better understanding of the COVID-19 dynamics through the non-parametric technique of phase synchronization by comparing the fifteen most affected countries by the number of positive cases plus China, where the first outbreak took place in December 2019. It was possible to state the number of cycles and waves for each one of the studied countries and to determine periods of synchronization between them. The results also showed the average duration of the cycles and some coincidences regarding Nason (2020); Bontempi (2021); Coccia (2021); Rusiñol, Zammit, Itarte, Forés, Martı́nez-Puchol, Girones, Borrego, Corominas, and Bofill-Mas (2021). This study is limited by the reliability of the number of positive cases reported by national governments and health authorities because of an insufficient number of tests and a great number of asymptomatic persons but presents a legit alternative to predict the evolution of the pandemic in a country due to the forward looking behavior of another one, therefore studies like this could be useful to implement contention measures and to prepare the health systems in advance.