Research on the Analysis of Efficiency and Potential Prediction of Cross-border E-Commerce Trade of Agricultural Products in West Anhui Based on Improved DEVA Model

Abstract

This paper uses an improved DEVA model and stochastic frontier gravity method to combine natural and inefficient influencing factors to measure the optimal trade potential using cross-border e-commerce trade volume so that the stochastic disturbance term obeys a semi-normal truncated distribution. The optimal export value in cross-border e-commerce is calculated based on the trade inefficiency term to derive the factors affecting agricultural trade. The results show that the development scale of cross-border e-commerce trade in agricultural products continues to expand, and the export trade volume in western Anhui Province increased by 940,000 yuan in 2018, and the trade efficiency value fluctuates between 0.11 and 0.20. Strengthening control and improving the cross-border logistics system can help promote the high-quality development of cross-border trade in agricultural products and promote the construction of rural revitalization.

Keywords

• stochastic frontier gravity
• deva model
• random error term
• trade inefficiency term
• semi-normal truncated distribution
• 91-02