Mathematical analysis and numerical simulations of the piecewise dynamics model of Malaria transmission: A case study in Yemen

Abstract

This study presents a mathematical model capturing Malaria transmission dynamics in Yemen, incorporating a social hierarchy structure. Piecewise Caputo-Fabrizio derivatives are utilized to effectively capture intricate dynamics, discontinuities, and different behaviors. Statistical data from 2000 to 2021 is collected and analyzed, providing predictions for Malaria cases in Yemen from 2022 to 2024 using Eviews and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models. The model investigates the crossover effect by dividing the study interval into two subintervals, establishing existence, uniqueness, positivity, and boundedness of solutions through fixed-point techniques and fractional-order properties of the Laplace transformation. The basic reproduction number is computed using a next-generation technique, and numerical solutions are obtained using the Adams-Bashforth method. The results are comprehensively discussed through graphs. The obtained results can help us to better control and predict the spread of the disease.

Keywords

• malaria model
• piecewise caputo-fabrizio fractional derivative
• statistical analysis