Revista de Economie Mondială (Jul 2009)
Natural Disasters under the Form of Severe Storms in Europe: the Cause-Effect Analysis
Abstract
For more than 100 years, from 1900 to 2008, there were almost 400 storms natural disasters in Europe, 40% of which occurred in the 1990s. The international prognoses for the world weather suggest a tendency toward increasing in frequency and intensity of the severe storms as the climate warms. In these circumstances, for a researcher in the field of Environmental Economics, a natural question occurs, on whether people can contribute to reducing the frequency and the magnitude of severe storms that produce disastreous social and economic effects, by acting on their causes. In researching an answer to support the public policies in the field, a cause-effect analysis applied to Europe might make a contribution to the literature in the field. This especially considering the fact that international literature regarding the factors influencing global warming contains certainties in regard to the natural factors of influence, but declared incertitudes or skepticism in regard to anthropogenic ones. Skepticism, and even tension arised during the international negotiations in Copenhagen (December 2009) in regard to the agreement for limiting global warming, with doubts being raised about the methods used by experts of the International Climate Experts Group (GIEC), and thus the results obtained, which served as a basis for the negotiations. The object of critics was in regard to the form, and at times in regard to the content. It was not about contesting the phenomenon of Global warming during the negotiations, but the methods of calculation. The methodology relies on qualitative (type top down) and quantitative (type correlations bottom up) cause-effect analysis of the storm disasters in Europe. Based on the instruments used, we proposed a dynamic model of association of the evolution of storm disasters in Europe with anthropogenic factors, with 3 variants. Results: The diagram cause-effect (Ishikawa or fishbone diagram) and quantitative correlation of sub-factors, secondary and primary factors of storm disasters in Europe, revealed the priority of human actions to prevent and decrease natural disasters-type storm.
