Biogeosciences (Jan 2025)
Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020
- Z. Zhang,
- B. Poulter,
- J. R. Melton,
- W. J. Riley,
- G. H. Allen,
- D. J. Beerling,
- P. Bousquet,
- J. G. Canadell,
- E. Fluet-Chouinard,
- P. Ciais,
- N. Gedney,
- P. O. Hopcroft,
- A. Ito,
- R. B. Jackson,
- A. K. Jain,
- K. Jensen,
- F. Joos,
- T. Kleinen,
- S. H. Knox,
- S. H. Knox,
- T. Li,
- X. Li,
- X. Liu,
- K. McDonald,
- G. McNicol,
- P. A. Miller,
- J. Müller,
- P. K. Patra,
- P. K. Patra,
- C. Peng,
- S. Peng,
- Z. Qin,
- R. M. Riggs,
- M. Saunois,
- Q. Sun,
- H. Tian,
- X. Xu,
- Y. Yao,
- Y. Xi,
- W. Zhang,
- W. Zhang,
- Q. Zhu,
- Q. Zhu,
- Q. Zhuang
Affiliations
- Z. Zhang
- National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resource (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
- B. Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Earth Sciences Division, Greenbelt, MD, USA
- J. R. Melton
- Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
- W. J. Riley
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
- G. H. Allen
- Department of Geosciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
- D. J. Beerling
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
- P. Bousquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- J. G. Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Environment, ACT 2601, Australia
- E. Fluet-Chouinard
- Earth Systems Science Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352, USA
- P. Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- N. Gedney
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Wallingford, UK
- P. O. Hopcroft
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
- A. Ito
- Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- R. B. Jackson
- Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305–2210, USA
- A. K. Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
- K. Jensen
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, City College of New York, City University of New York, NY, USA
- F. Joos
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- T. Kleinen
- Department of Climate Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
- S. H. Knox
- Department of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
- S. H. Knox
- Department of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
- T. Li
- State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China
- X. Li
- National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resource (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China
- X. Liu
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
- K. McDonald
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, City College of New York, City University of New York, NY, USA
- G. McNicol
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USA
- P. A. Miller
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, Sweden
- J. Müller
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- P. K. Patra
- Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan
- P. K. Patra
- Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), Kyoto, Japan
- C. Peng
- Department of Biology Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, C.P. 8888, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montreal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada
- S. Peng
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
- Z. Qin
- School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun-Yat-Sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519000, China
- R. M. Riggs
- Department of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA
- M. Saunois
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
- Q. Sun
- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- H. Tian
- Center for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USA
- X. Xu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
- Y. Yao
- School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
- Y. Xi
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
- W. Zhang
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, Sweden
- W. Zhang
- School of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
- Q. Zhu
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
- Q. Zhu
- College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
- Q. Zhuang
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric, Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-305-2025
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 22
pp. 305 – 321
Abstract
Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH4) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH4 emissions from 2000–2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH4 emissions at 158 ± 24 (mean ± 1σ) Tg CH4 yr−1 over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 ± 2.0×106 km2 for the period 2010–2020, with an average increase of 6–7 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2010–2019 compared to the average for 2000–2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90–30° S, 30° S–30° N, 30–60° N, and 60–90° N were 0.1–0.2, 3.6–3.7, 1.8–2.4, and 0.6–0.8 Tg CH4 yr−1, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH4 sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH4 emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments.
