TOWARD SUSTAINABLE HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN VENEZUELA DIAGNOSIS, CHALLENGES AND ECONOMIC STRATEGY

Abstract

Venezuela is undergoing one of the deepest economic crises experienced by any nation in modern history. Since 2013, GDP has contracted by 61.7% and is expected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to fall an additional 15.0% this year, taking the total aggregate economic contraction between 2013 and 2020 to 68.1%. Hyperinflation has so far reached 49.9 million percent from December 2017 to May 2020 (latest available Central Bank print), while poverty rates have tripled. A mass exodus has occurred, during which at least 5.2 million persons, or approximately one-sixth of the country’s population, are estimated to have left the country. The scale of Venezuela’s collapse is staggering. However, only a few academic studies have been written attempting to identify its causes. Researchers and commentators have pointed to the role of macroeconomic imbalances, microeconomic distortions, and economic sanctions as possible drivers. However, similar drivers have been present in comparable economies and, while having an adverse effect on growth, have not generated collapses of the magnitude that we observe in Venezuela. As a result, consensus on an overarching explanation of the causes remains elusive.

Keywords

• venezuela
• crises
• human development
• diagnosis
• challenges
• economic strategy
• economic crisis
• human sustainable development