Identification of a Representative Stationary Period for Rainfall Variability Description in the Sudano-Sahelian Zone of West Africa during the 1901–2018 Period

Abstract

Many studies have been undertaken on climate variability in West Africa since the drastic drought of 1970s. These studies rely in many cases on different baseline periods chosen with regard to the reference periods defined by the World Meteorological Organization. A method is developed in this study to determine a stationary baseline period for rainfall variability analysis. The method is based on an application of three statistic tests (on deviation and trend) and a test of shifts detection in rainfall time series. The application of this method on six different gridded rainfall data and observations from 1901 to 2018 shows that the 1917–1946 period is the longest stationary period. An assessment of the significance of the difference between the mean annual rainfall amount during this baseline period and the annual rainfall amount during the other years shows that the “Normal” annual rainfall amount is defined by an interval delineated by ±the standard deviation (STD). With regard to this interval, a very wet/dry year is defined with a surplus/gap over/below the STD. Overall the 1901–2018 period, the 1950–1970 period presents the most important number of significant wet years and the 1971–1990 period presents the most important number of significant dry years.

Keywords

• climate variability
• climate change
• drought
• reference period
• Sudano-Sahel
• West Africa