Impact of war on COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine: the simulation study

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a challenge to public health systems worldwide. As of March 2022, almost 500 million cases have been reported worldwide. More than 6.2 million people died. The war that Russia launched for no reason on the territory of Ukraine is not only the cause of the death of thousands of people and the destruction of dozens of cities but also a large-scale humanitarian crisis. The military invasion also affected the public health sector. The impossibility of providing medical care, non-compliance with sanitary conditions in areas where active hostilities are occurring, high population density during the evacuation, and other factors contribute to a new stage in the spread of COVID-19 in Ukraine. Building an adequate model of the epidemic process will make it possible to assess the actual statistics of the incidence of COVID-19 and assess the risks and effectiveness of measures to curb the curse of the disease epidemic process. The article aims to develop a simulation model of the COVID-19 epidemic process in Ukraine and to study the results of an experimental study in war conditions. The research is targeted at the epidemic process of COVID-19 under military conditions. The subjects of the study are models and methods for modeling the epidemic process based on statistical machine learning methods. To achieve the study's aim, we used forecasting methods and built a model of the COVID-19 epidemic process based on the polynomial regression method. Because of the experiments, the accuracy of predicting new cases of COVID-19 in Ukraine for 30 days was 97,98%, and deaths of COVID-19 in Ukraine – was 99,87%. The model was applied to data on the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine for the first month of the war (02/24/22 - 03/25/22). The calculated predictive values showed a significant deviation from the registered statistics. Conclusions. This article describes experimental studies of implementing the COVID-19 epidemic process model in Ukraine based on the polynomial regression method. The constructed model was sufficiently accurate in deciding on anti-epidemic measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the selected area. The study of the model in data on the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine during the war made it possible to assess the completeness of the recorded statistics, identify the risks of the spread of COVID-19 in wartime, and determine the necessary measures to curb the epidemic curse of the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine. The investigation of the experimental study results shows a significant decrease in the registration of the COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine. An analysis of the situation showed difficulty in accessing medical care, a reduction in diagnosis and registration of new cases, and the war led to the intensification of the COVID-19 epidemic process.

Keywords

• epidemic model
• epidemic process
• epidemic simulation
• simulation
• covid-19
• polynomial regression
• war