A middle-income economy by 2030: A Zimbabwe tourism destination perspective based on a GDP forecast using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach.

Abstract

The study used annual time series data on GDP per capita in Zimbabwe from 1960 to 2017, in order to model and forecast GDP per capita using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. The tests indicated that Zimbabwe GDP per capita data is I (1). The results of the study revealed that the GDP per capita in Zimbabwe is likely to improve in the next decade. Qualitative research was also conducted in order to establish the main factors that might support the anticipated growth from a tourism perspective through indepth interviews. A further quantitative research was done to try to understand the most dominant factors which were injecting a positive GDP from a tourism sector point of view. The results showed that tourism enterprising, political stability, tourism innovation, Foreign Direct Investment and favourable pricing were all critical issues. The study therefore recommended therefore recommended the need for a currency reform, a friendly business environment and a stringent political dialogue in the country as factors which would help drive the country towards a middle income economy status by 2030.

Keywords

• Tourism destination
• gross domestic product
• Zimbabwe
• ARIMA
• economic growth