Mathematical assessment of constant and time-dependent control measures on the dynamics of the novel coronavirus: An application of optimal control theory

Abstract

The coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19) is a novel respiratory disease reported in 2019 in China. The COVID-19 is one of the deadliest pandemics in history due to its high mortality rate in a short period. Many approaches have been adopted for disease minimization and eradication. In this paper, we studied the impact of various constant and time-dependent variable control measures coupled with vaccination on the dynamics of COVID-19. The optimal control theory is used to optimize the model and set an effective control intervention for the infection. Initially, we formulate the mathematical epidemic model for the COVID-19 without variable controls. The model basic mathematical assessment is presented. The nonlinear least-square procedure is utilized to parameterize the model from actual cases reported in Pakistan. A well-known technique based on statistical tools known as the Latin-hypercube sampling approach (LHS) coupled with the partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) is applied to present the model global sensitivity analysis. Based on global sensitivity analysis, the COVID-19 vaccine model is reformulated to obtain a control problem by introducing three time dependent control variables for isolation, vaccine efficacy and treatment enhancement represented by u1(t), u2(t)and u3(t), respectively. The necessary optimality conditions of the control problem are derived via the optimal control theory. Finally, the simulation results are depicted with and without variable controls using the well-known Runge–Kutta numerical scheme. The simulation results revealed that time-dependent control measures play a vital role in disease eradication.

Keywords

• Optimal control theory
• Data fitting
• COVID-19
• Global sensitivity analysis