THE IMPACT OF DENGUE FEVER ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: CASE STUDIES FROM THAILAND AND BRAZIL

Abstract

Intro: Dengue is hyperendemic in large parts of South America and Southeast Asia, posing a burden on healthcare systems and causing disruptions in economic activity. However, the macroeconomic impact of dengue has not been captured in burden of illness studies. We evaluate the impact of dengue on gross domestic product (GDP) through work productivity losses in Brazil and loss of tourism revenue in Thailand. Methods: For Brazil, state-level epidemiological and economic data for 2019 was used to estimate the number of lost workdays associated with outpatient and hospitalized dengue cases for patients and caregivers of paediatric patients. For Thailand, lost tourism revenues were estimated by assuming that dengue outbreaks reduced international tourist arrivals to Thailand from non-endemic countries by 4% in 2019. An inoperability input-output model was developed to evaluate the effect of lost working time on Brazil's GDP while an input-output model was applied to estimate the direct, indirect, and induced effects (income losses experienced by employees of the tourism industry and its suppliers) of dengue on Thailand's GDP. Findings: For Brazil, the estimated number of lost working days related to outpatient and hospitalized dengue cases in 2019 was 22.4 million. The estimated impact on GDP was 876 million USD, approximately 0.05% of Brazil's GDP in 2019. For Thailand, the direct and indirect effects of dengue on tourism were estimated to have a 716 and 718 million USD respectively (0.13%) impact on overall GDP, and the induced effect was 375 million USD (0.07%). In total, the impact of dengue on tourism reduced Thailand's GDP by an estimated $1.8 billion USD (0.33%) in 2019. Conclusion: Dengue has a profound macroeconomic impact in Brazil and Thailand, reducing overall GDP and inflicting losses on individuals and companies. Dengue prevention measures such as vaccination may reduce disease burden and mitigate the broader economic impact of dengue.