Prognostic Properties of Instantaneous Amplitudes Maxima of Earth Surface Tremor

Abstract

A method is proposed for analyzing the tremor of the earth’s surface, measured by GPS, in order to highlight prognostic effects. The method is applied to the analysis of daily time series of vertical displacements in Japan. The network of 1047 stations is divided into 15 clusters. The Huang Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is applied to the time series of the principal components from the clusters, with subsequent calculation of instantaneous amplitudes using the Hilbert transform. To ensure the stability of estimates of the waveforms of the EMD decomposition, 1000 independent additive realizations of white noise of limited amplitude were averaged before the Hilbert transform. Using a parametric model of the intensities of point processes, we analyze the connections between the instants of sequences of times of the largest local maxima of instantaneous amplitudes, averaged over the number of clusters and the times of earthquakes in the vicinity of Japan with minimum magnitude thresholds of 5.5 for the time interval 2012–2023. It is shown that the sequence of the largest local maxima of instantaneous amplitudes significantly more often precedes the moments of time of earthquakes (roughly speaking, has an “influence”) than the reverse “influence” of earthquakes on the maxima of amplitudes.

Keywords

• earth surface tremor
• cluster analysis
• principal components
• Hilbert–Huang decomposition
• seismic process
• event sequence intensity model