Definition of Scenarios for Modern Power Systems with a High Renewable Energy Share

Abstract

Abstract Recent environmental policies have led academic, industrial, and governmental stakeholders to plan scenarios with a high share of renewable energy sources (RES), to ensure that future energy systems, composed mostly of RES, can remain stable, match the demand during seasonal variations and are economically feasible. This article considers different energy scenarios to obtain various options in terms of size, generation technologies, and grid configuration. The scenarios are studied in the POSYTYF project and are quantified through an optimization‐based algorithm, where the test grids topologies are based on specific locations in Europe, and real data related to the availability of RES, as well as the demand. Different RES technologies are considered to meet requirements of grid integration of renewables at different horizons of time, up to 100% in the most futuristic case. The optimization algorithm is applied to three scenarios. It is shown that solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind can provide the renewable backbone, but they lack flexibility to achieve a very high share in the energy mix. Solar thermal and pumped hydro become important to cover the last range of integration, as they provide high flexibility, which is crucial for high share, but they are expensive for low share.

Keywords

• future power systems
• future scenarios
• generation mix
• optimization
• renewable energy sources