Redai dili (Aug 2024)
Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Population Aging in China at the County Level during 2000-2020
Abstract
A comprehensive understanding of the distribution pattern and driving factors of population aging at the country level in China is fundamental for enhancing the governance capacity of the governing authorities and implementing a national strategy to actively cope with the aging society. On the basis of the 2000, 2010, and 2020 census data on the Chinese population, we determined the distribution pattern of population aging in China over the past 20 years at the county level and adopted a fractional response model to identify the main influencing factors of such spatial distribution from three perspectives: the natural environment, socioeconomic factors, and population migration. The following observations were made: 1) During the past 20 years, most counties in China have entered into an "aging society," some counties have entered into an "aged society," and counties in the Chengdu-Chongqing region, central Inner Mongolia, and peripheral Yangtze River Delta have entered into a "hyper-aged society." 2) The spatial structure of the distribution of population aging exhibited various patterns. Overall, the Hu Line is a clear demarcation for the distribution, with the degree of aging of the counties in the southeastern half of the line being generally higher than that of the counties in the northwestern half and maintaining a certain degree of stability. During the past 20 years, the aging population has shown a gradient diffusion of the characteristics of the Eastern monsoon region―Northwest arid region―Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. From a local perspective, population aging presents various structural characteristics, such as "homogenization," "reverse core-edge," and "core-edge" spatial structures. 3) Significant regional differences exist in population aging. Vast differences in population aging between different ecological regions, between urban and rural areas, and between ethnic and non-ethnic autonomous regions are obvious, and these differences tend to expand further. 4) Natural factors have laid the macro pattern of the distribution of population aging. Socioeconomic factors are the main driving force of the aging process, and population migration has played an important role in restructuring the aging space pattern. This study provides a scientific basis for optimization of the spatial allocation of pension resources, and different regions can actively respond to the formulation and improvement of differentiated policies for population aging.
Keywords
