Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Abstract The increase in intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity across the western North Pacific (WNP) has often been attributed to a warming ocean. However, it is essential to recognize that the tropical WNP region already boasts high temperatures, and a marginal increase in oceanic warmth due to global warming does not exert a significant impact on the potential for TCs to intensify. Here we report that the weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind the escalating trend in TC intensity within the summer monsoon trough of the tropical WNP, while local ocean surface and subsurface thermodynamic factors play a minor role. Through observational diagnoses and numerical simulations, we establish that this weakening of the vertical wind shear is very likely due to the increase in temperature of the Tibetan Plateau. With further warming of the Tibetan Plateau under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, the projected TCs will likely become stronger.