Development and validation of a risk prediction model for cognitive impairment in breast cancer patients

Abstract

Abstract Background Breast cancer patients often experience cognitive impairment as a complication during treatment, which seriously affects their quality of life. This study aimed to assess the risk factors associated with cognitive impairment in breast cancer patients and to construct and validate a nomogram model to predict cognitive impairment in this population. Methods In this study, we used a convenience sampling method to select 423 breast cancer patients who attended the Department of Breast Surgery at the First Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University from September 2023 to March 2024. We analyzed these patients’ cognitive impairment risk factors through LASSO regression and logistic regression analysis to develop a predictive model. The model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the calibration curve and decision curve analysis. Results This study found a prevalence of cognitive impairment of 19.62% among breast cancer patients. A nomogram model was developed based on six influencing factors: age, educational level, pathological type, treatment program, emotional state, and fatigue. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model’s training and validation groups was 0.944 and 0.931, respectively. The model calibration curves showed a high degree of consistency, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) indicated good clinical applicability of the model. Conclusions This nomogram demonstrates good discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability, making it a more intuitive predictor of the risk of cognitive impairment in breast cancer patients.

Keywords

• Breast cancer
• Cognitive impairment
• Risk factors
• Risk prediction
• Nomogram