Ageing in European post-communist countries – is it a threat to the welfare system?

Abstract

The aim of the study was to diagnose the current and projected pace of ageing in the societies of European post-communist countries from the point of view of its being an increasing economic burden on the economically active population. The analysis covered the years 1990–2050. Ageing is already visible and, according to the forecast, the process will accelerate even more. The old-age dependency ratio (OADR) is expected to exceed 50 in half of the countries in the study by 2050. This will result in major threats to the further development of these countries and will lead to poverty and social exclusion of the elderly. In order to slow down the ageing process, the authorities of these countries should take a number of actions, the most important of which are the implementation of an effective and efficient pro-natal policy (so that the total fertility rate would increase above 2.1), and a well-thought-out migration policy.

Keywords

• ageing
• old-age dependency ratio
• second demographic transition
• european post-communist countries