The performance of aviation forecasters as a consequence of major events

Abstract

Aviation forecasters, recognized for their consistent professionalism and rigorous training, typically exhibit unwavering focus on their responsibilities. Despite this, acknowledging the human element, this research explores the potential impact of external social and psychological influences on their forecasting accuracy. Utilizing standard Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) and Meteorological Aerodrome Reports (METAR) observations, the study assesses forecast quality, emphasizing significant events like the COVID-19 pandemic, Nordic storm, tornado, and ice hockey world cup finals. Instances of decreased forecast accuracy during these events prompt an investigation into the role of social and psychological factors. This paper introduces a novel approach, employing variance from the long-term average, to gauge the influence of social and psychological factors on professional performance. Beyond highlighting the daily impacts of the social environment on highly routinized and professional activities, the study underscores an often-overlooked prospect. It posits that professional and technical assessment metrics can robustly indicate the severity of social and natural events. The research thus contributes to a deeper understanding of the intricate interplay between meteorological expertise and external influences, emphasizing the potential for utilizing professional performance metrics as indicators of broader societal events.

Keywords

• forecasters’ performance
• pandemic influence
• aviation weather
• aerodrome forecasting
• professional performance
• taf