Ecological niche modeling of Prosopis africana (Guill., Perrot., and Rich.) Taub in Togo, West Africa under current and future climate conditions

Abstract

Abstract Prosopis africana (Guill., Perrot., and Rich.) Taub. is a multipurpose species of significant socioeconomic value under threat in West Africa due to overexploitation and land-use changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of this species within Togo climate zones. In predicting the distribution of P. africana, we evaluated the performance of five species distribution models (SDMs): Random Forest (RF), General Additive Model (GAM), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), and General Linear Model (GLM). We employed Kappa and True Skill Statistic (TSS) as evaluation metrics to identify the most accurate model. Future habitat suitability was projected for the periods 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100, based on an average of four general circulation models (CanESM5, CNRM-CM6, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC6) under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Principal Component Analysis was used to discriminate populations of P. africana based on 19 bioclimatic variables and soil data. The results indicate that the RF model demonstrated the highest predictive performance. The analysis revealed two distinct populations of P. africana corresponding to Togo Sudanian (SZ) and Guinean (GZ) climate zones. Currently, both zones provide highly suitable habitats for the species, with 81.7% of the SZ and 88.4% of the GZ identified as suitable areas. However, future projections suggest contrasting outcomes: the SZ zone is expected to become entirely suitable, whereas the GZ zone is projected to experience a decline in suitable habitats. These findings underscore the need for region-specific conservation strategies to safeguard P. africana under changing climatic conditions. This study emphasizes the importance of adaptive, location-specific management to mitigate the impacts of global climate change on vulnerable species.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Species distribution models
• Prosopis africana
• Habitat suitability