Geofluid behavior prior to the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake: insights from groundwater geochemistry

Abstract

Abstract A notable decrease of groundwater Na/K ratios was observed several months before the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake (M6.7) at a site approximately 20 km west of the earthquake’s epicenter. To investigate the cause of the decreased Na/K ratios, we analyzed groundwater samples (commercially bottled drinking water) to assess the contribution of deep-derived fluids using Li and Sr isotopic ratios, which are reliable indicators of deep fluid contributions. No pronounced changes in the 7Li/6Li and 87Sr/86Sr ratios were observed; thus, the pre-earthquake decrease of groundwater Na/K ratios did not result from the input of deep-derived fluids. The pre-earthquake decrease in the Na/K ratio observed in this study may instead be related to CO2 influx into the aquifer. The CO2 may have leaked from carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), because CCS was in operation near the epicenter of the 2018 Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake. Decreases of the Na/K ratios and increases of the CO2 concentrations in groundwater have been reported before other large earthquakes; thus, CO2 influx into groundwater may be a common phenomenon preceding earthquakes.

Keywords

• Na/K ratio
• Hokkaido Eastern Iburi earthquake
• Lithium isotope
• Earthquake precursor
• Carbon dioxide