Nomograms to predict long‐term survival for patients with gallbladder carcinoma after resection

Abstract

Abstract Background Surgical resection remains the primary treatment option for gallbladder carcinoma (GBC). However, there is a pressing demand for prognostic tools that can refine patients' treatment choices and tailor personalized therapies accordingly. Aims The nomograms were constructed using the data of a training cohort (n = 378) of GBC patients at Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital (EHBH) between 2008 and 2018. The model's performance was validated in GBC patients (n = 108) at Guangzhou Centre from 2007 to 2018. Methods and results The 5‐year overall survival (OS) rate in the training cohort was 24.4%. Multivariate analyses were performed using preoperative and postoperative data to identify independent predictors of OS. These predictors were then incorporated into preoperative and postoperative nomograms, respectively. The C‐index of the preoperative nomogram was 0.661 (95% CI, 0.627 to 0.694) for OS prediction and correctly delineated four subgroups (5‐year OS rates: 48.1%, 19.0%, 15.6%, and 8.1%, p < 0.001). The C‐index of the postoperative nomogram was 0.778 (95%CI, 0.756 –0.800). Furthermore, this nomogram was superior to the 8th TNM system in both C‐index and the net benefit on decision curve analysis. The results were externally validated. Conclusion The two nomograms showed an optimally prognostic prediction in GBC patients after curative‐intent resection.

Keywords

• decision curve analysis
• gallbladder carcinoma
• nomogram
• prognosis
• resection
• TNM system