The rush to the Arctic: Geopolitical linkages and challenges for Indo-Pacific regional stability

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate how great power competition in the Arctic, driven by new maritime routes emerging from melting sea ice due to climate change, significantly reduces shipping distances between Europe and Asia and impacts the dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region. This development has intensified strategic competition among major powers, especially China, the United States, and Russia. According to the realism theory, these countries pursue national interests by seeking to establish influence over the Arctic route. This study uses a qualitative methodology based on a comprehensive literature review, analyzing secondary data from academic publications, policy documents, and expert reports. The findings are synthesized and presented through descriptive narrative analysis to provide insights into the complex interactions between Arctic developments and Indo-Pacific regional dynamics. This study reveals that great power competition centered on the Arctic has substantial spillover impacts in the Indo-Pacific region, especially on regional environmental sustainability and geopolitical stability, particularly in the Malacca Strait region. A major limitation of this study lies in the evolving nature of great power competition in the Pacific Ocean, which poses challenges in accessing up-to-date information and analyzing fast-changing dynamics. The study concludes that the interconnectedness between the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific requires a nuanced understanding of the evolving geopolitical landscape. The findings have implications for regional security, economic cooperation, and environmental sustainability in both regions.

Keywords

• arctic
• climate change
• great power competition
• indo-pacific