A Statistical Analysis of the Water Levels at Lake Neusiedl

Abstract

The recent low water levels of Lake Neusiedl have raised concern about the lake's future and have sparked interest on how meteorological variables impact the water level. Data from the last 50 years are used to study the impact of rain and temperature on the cyclical changes of the water levels. Linear and nonlinear regression models are used to describe how rainfall and temperature change the water level, and to assess the future progression of the water level under three scenarios. For average 2022 meteorological conditions the water levels in 2022 may not recover for a dry 2021 autumn, but will recover substantially for a wet ending to the year 2021.