Simulation of Decline of Norway Spruce (Picea Abies L. Karst.) Forests in Gorgan Mountains (Ukrainian Carpathians): Case Study Using Forkome Model

Abstract

The FORKOME model used in the article contains elements of forest and ecological approaches and was specially developed for the conditions of the Gorgans. The modeling was performed based on the single simulation results and statistically averaged forecast of 200 simulations (“Monte Carlo”) in order to show the tendency of changes and their correspondence with single simulations. The forecast of the forest dynamics was conducted at the 100th anniversary period with “control” and “warm-dry” scenarios. It has been revealed that the rapid decrease in biomass in the first decade was caused by Norway spruce decline. It was revealed that in the control scenario, the most active biomass growth during the 100th year forecast was shown by Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) and beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The fir reacted relatively sensitively to the warming and decrease in rainfall. The relationships between tree species and the influence of biomass of Norway spruce tree on the biomass of the whole forest tree stand were analyzed.

Keywords

• modeling
• biomass
• number of trees
• forecast