Analysis of climate change scenarios using CMIP6 models in Pernambuco, Brazil

Abstract

Monitoring the effects of climate change is essential due to the ongoing increase in extreme drought and flood events, primarily driven by changes in key variables such as precipitation and temperature. In this study, data from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models were used to assess temperature and precipitation anomalies in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, for the period 2041 to 2100, considering two different climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585). The projected data were compared with WorldClim historical climatological data between 1970 and 2000. Due to the significant spatial variability of annual precipitation in Pernambuco, ranging from 400 to 2,200 mm, the state was evaluated considering its territory in total and also in two distinct climatic regions (Sertão/Agreste and Zona da Mata). An increase in temperature is projected, even in the least pessimistic scenario (SSP245) with an increment of 1.64°C from 2041 to 2060. During the same period, an increase of 2.10°C is expected in the SSP585 scenario. For the period from 2081 to 2100, the models indicate increases of 2.45 and 4.53°C, respectively. Precipitation will decrease in all scenarios and regions of Pernambuco, with a reduction of up to 227.24 mm year-1 in the Zona da Mata between 2081 and 2100 in the SSP585 scenario. These potential changes pose imminent threats to water resources, agriculture, biodiversity, and the population, demanding proactive measures from policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate these effects.

Keywords

• temperature; precipitation; climate variability; shared socioeconomic pathways; water resources.