Guidance on how to improve vertical covariance localization based on a 1000-member ensemble

Abstract

The success of ensemble data assimilation systems substantially depends on localization, which is required to mitigate sampling errors caused by modeling background error covariances with undersized ensembles. However, finding an optimal localization is highly challenging, as covariances, sampling errors, and appropriate localization depend on various factors. Our study investigates vertical localization based on a unique convection-permitting 1000-member ensemble simulation; 1000-member ensemble correlations serve as truth for examining vertical correlations and their sampling error. We discuss requirements for vertical localization by deriving an empirical optimal localization (EOL) that minimizes the sampling error in 40-member subsample correlations with respect to the 1000-member reference. Our analysis covers temperature, specific humidity, and wind correlations on various pressure levels. Results suggest that vertical localization should depend on several aspects, such as the respective variable, vertical level, or correlation type (self- or cross-correlations). Comparing the empirical optimal localization with common distance-dependent localization approaches highlights that finding suitable localization functions bears substantial room for improvement. Furthermore, we examine approaches for achieving positive semi-definiteness for covariance localization that hardly affect the sampling error reduction. Finally, we discuss the gain of combining different localization approaches with an adaptive statistical sampling error correction.