MCMCINLA Estimation of Missing Data and Its Application to Public Health Development in China in the Post-Epidemic Era

Abstract

Medical data are often missing during epidemiological surveys and clinical trials. In this paper, we propose the MCMCINLA estimation method to account for missing data. We introduce a new latent class into the spatial lag model (SLM) and use a conditional autoregressive specification (CAR) spatial model-based approach to impute missing values, making the model fit into the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) framework. Combining the advantages of both the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and INLA frameworks, the MCMCINLA algorithm is used to implement imputation of the missing data and fit the model to derive estimates of the parameters from the posterior margins. Finally, the economic data and the hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) disease data of mainland China from 2016–2018 are used as examples to explore the development of public health in China in the post-epidemic era. The results show that compared with expectation maximization (EM) and full information maximum likelihood estimation (FIML), the predicted values of the missing data obtained using our method are closer to the true values, and the spatial distribution of HFRS in China can be inferred from the imputation results with a southern-heavy and northern-light distribution. It can provide some references for the development of public health in China in the post-epidemic era.

Keywords

• missing data
• spatial lag model
• MCMC
• INLA
• public health