Modeling macrodynamics of a Russian economic region

Abstract

Objective: to build a model of economic dynamics of the Russian regions.Methods: economic and mathematical modeling, methods of applied statistics and econometrics, general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis.Results: the main approaches to the construction of applied macroeconomic models are studied, their shortcomings are determined. A macroeconomic model of the Russian economy is developed on the basis of three sectors: export-oriented, internally-oriented, and natural monopolies. Based on the constructed non-equilibrium structural model of the Russian economy, the key macroeconomic factors determining the economic dynamics of a region were selected. The developed model was projected to the regional level, taking into account the economic type of the regions and their clustering. Based on the information obtained from the analytical model, co-integration vectors for subsidized and agricultural regions, industrialized regions with a focus on production and processing, as well as the regions with a predominantly developed service sector, were estimated.Scientific novelty: the possibility of adaptation of the disaggregated macroeconomic model of Russia to the macroeconomic analysis of regions is investigated; the vectors of co-integration for the corresponding indicators are estimated. A technique of the Russian regions classification by the area of economic activity and the clusters’ dynamic stability analysis is proposed. Practical significance: the approach is of interest as a tool for quantitative analysis of the economic dynamics of the Russian regions, for developing scenarios and assessing the quality of growth.

Keywords

• экономика и управление народным хозяйством
• экономика россии
• структурное моделирование
• дезагрегированная макромодель
• регионы россии
• прикладной эконометрический анализ