A system dynamics model based on ISM for risk perception in emergency by employees in chemical industrial parks

Abstract

Abstract Risk perception is one of the factors that guide human behavior in the workplace. In accident prevention and emergency response, the risk perception of employees affects the safety behaviour and efficiency of emergency disposal. Besides, risk perception is a complicated process restricted by many influencing factors. The study aims to identify the most important factors affecting risk perception. This study had three phases. In the first, factors affecting the risk perception were extracted based on the questionnaire survey and the expert scoring. Then, the Interpretive Structure Model (ISM) was used to stratify the 14 influencing factors of risk perception and obtain a hierarchical structure chart. Finally, by analyzing the influence paths in the ISM, the system dynamics feedback loop diagram was constructed. The model took the state variable “risk perception→ risk response→ risk identification→ risk communication→ risk perception” as the main circular loop, and was supplemented and perfected by multiple feeder loop circuits. Research indicates risk experience is the most fundamental factor affecting risk perception. In the aspect of sensitivity analysis, the study shows that the risk perception of employees is related to the distance of the risk source. Its effectiveness in quantifying qualitative data, identifying influential factors, and establishing cause-effect relationships make it a valuable tool for enhancing risk perception in chemical industry park.

Keywords

• chemical industry
• Interpretive Structural Modeling
• risk perception simulation
• system dynamics
• influencing factor