Cyclical ‘wetting’ phenomenon in the source region of Yellow River under long-term trends from 1956 to 2022

Abstract

Study region: the source region of the Yellow River (SRYB) Study focus: Due to environmental changes, the drying and wetting processes have become increasingly intricate, and it is uncertain whether the wetting phenomenon in the SRYB indicates a long-term trend or a temporary cyclic event. This study utilized monthly streamflow and precipitation records from 1956 to 2022 to calculate hydrological and meteorological-dryness/wetness, represented by the standardized streamflow and precipitation indices, respectively. This study used detrended, wavelet, and cross-wavelet methods to investigate dry-wet variability and identified the atmospheric circulation phenomena driving the dryness/wetness and cyclical changes in the region. New hydro-meteorological insights for the SRYB: (i) The SRYB showed an overall fluctuating wetting trend, which intensified after 2000. (ii) There were notable oscillatory cycles at 3–5 years, 10–12 years, and approximately 20–25 years in both hydrological and meteorological dry-wet variability. (iii) Transitions from dry to wet conditions had no significant link to short-term cycles (e.g., 3–5 years), but were linked to decadal cycles (e.g., 20–25 years). (iv) Spring and winter precipitation and streamflow dominated the interannual dry-wet variability. (v) The ENSO, AMO, and PDO influenced short-term cyclic fluctuations, while the AO and PDO influenced decadal cyclic fluctuations. This indicates that the wetting trend follows a cyclic pattern, and the intensification since 2000 is consistent with a decadal cyclic signal.

Keywords

• Dry-wet
• Trends
• Cycles
• Hydro-meteorological
• Source region of the Yellow River