Clinical Score for Predicting the Risk of Poor Ambulation at Discharge in Fragility Femoral Neck Fracture Patients: A Development Study

Abstract

Surgical treatment in patients with fragility femoral neck fractures often leads to a longer length of hospital stay (LOS) and higher costs. Intensive rehabilitation is one of the choices to reduce LOS, but patient selection criteria are controversial. We intended to develop a clinical score to predict the risk of poor ambulation at discharge. This study was based on a retrospective cohort of patients diagnosed with fragility femoral neck fractures surgically managed from January 2010 to December 2019 at Chiang Mai University (CMU) Hospital. Pre-, intra-, and post-operative factors that affect rehabilitation training were candidate predictors. All patients were categorized into able or unable groups based on their ability to bear self-weight at discharge. Logistic regression was used for score derivation. Five hundred and nine patients were included in this study. Male sex, end-stage kidney disease (ESRD), cerebrovascular disease, psychiatric disorders, pre-fracture ambulation with gait aids, concomitant fracture, post-operative intensive care unit (ICU) admission or ventilator use, and urinary catheter use at second day post-operation were identified as the prognostic factors. The score showed an AuROC of 0.84 with good calibration. The score can be used for risk stratification on the second day post-operation. External validation is encouraged before clinical implementation.

Keywords

• femoral neck fractures
• risk factors
• risk scores
• probability
• rehabilitation