Evaluating technological progress in public policies: the case of the high-speed railways in the Netherlands

Abstract

Main-stream evaluations of failed policies are geared towards finding a limited set of factors that are deemed to have caused the problem. This is particularly so in the case of high-profile public projects such as in technology and infrastructure development. While justified from the point of political accountability, this article presents an alternative view. Following insights from evolutionary economics and complex systems about the embedded nature of technological systems and the role of chance next to purposeful planning, we demonstrate that traditional policy evaluations are misguided when geared towards simplistic cause-and-effect relations. To this end, we analyze the reasons for the mixed results in the Dutch high-speed railway case. The findings show that, contrary to popular opinions in the political domain, technological progress did take place. However, misalignment between social practices and technological systems masked that progress.

Keywords

• innovation policy
• complexity science
• socio-technological innovation
• policy evaluation