Designing a novel fractional order mathematical model for COVID-19 incorporating lockdown measures

Abstract

Abstract This research focuses on the design of a novel fractional model for simulating the ongoing spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19). The model is composed of multiple categories named susceptible $$S(t)$$ S ( t ) , infected $$I(t)$$ I ( t ) , treated $$T(t)$$ T ( t ) , and recovered $$R(t)$$ R ( t ) with the susceptible category further divided into two subcategories $${S}_{1} (t)$$ S 1 ( t ) and $${S}_{2} (t)$$ S 2 ( t ) . In light of the need for restrictive measures such as mandatory masks and social distancing to control the virus, the study of the dynamics and spread of the virus is an important topic. In addition, we investigate the positivity of the solution and its boundedness to ensure positive results. Furthermore, equilibrium points for the system are determined, and a stability analysis is conducted. Additionally, this study employs the analytical technique of the Laplace Adomian decomposition method (LADM) to simulate the different compartments of the model, taking into account various scenarios. The Laplace transform is used to convert the nonlinear resulting equations into an equivalent linear form, and the Adomian polynomials are utilized to treat the nonlinear terms. Solving this set of equations yields the solution for the state variables. To further assess the dynamics of the model, numerical simulations are conducted and compared with the results from LADM. Additionally, a comparison with real data from Italy is demonstrated, which shows a perfect agreement between the obtained data using the numerical and Laplace Adomian techniques. The graphical simulation is employed to investigate the effect of fractional-order terms, and an analysis of parameters is done to observe how quickly stabilization can be achieved with or without confinement rules. It is demonstrated that if no confinement rules are applied, it will take longer for stabilization after more people have been affected; however, if strict measures and a low contact rate are implemented, stabilization can be reached sooner.