Influencing mechanism of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of China’s resource-based cities

Abstract

[Objective] The high-quality development of resource-based cities is an important part of the high-quality development of Chinese cities. At present, the shrinkage of resource-based cities in China is obvious. Exploring the mechanism of influence of resource industry dependence on urban shrinkage can provide a reference for the transformation of resource-based cities and promote the high-quality development of cities. [Methods] Based on the cross-sectional data of 792 resource-based cities at or above the county level in China in 2010 and 2020, this study empirically tested the influence of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of these cities and its mechanism by using the least square regression model, the mediation effect model, and the moderating effect model. [Results] (1) The benchmark regression results showed that resource industry dependence had a significant promoting effect on urban shrinkage after controlling the influence of other factors on urban shrinkage. (2) Mechanism analysis showed that the resource industry relied on impeding the accumulation of human capital to promote urban shrinkage. (3) The results of moderating effect test showed that resource price had a negative moderating effect on the influence of resource industry dependence on urban shrinkage. (4) The influence of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of resource-based cities and the intermediary effect of human capital were heterogeneous. The promoting effect of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of resource-based cities was more significant in mature cities, while the intermediary effect of human capital was more significant in mature and declining cities. [Conclusion] Improving the level of human capital and paying attention to resource price forecasting are feasible measures to promote the population growth of resource-based cities which depend on the development of resource industries. It is suggested that resource-based cities should change the development mode of resource-dependent industries, pay attention to the accumulation of human capital, and improve the ability of resource price forecasting.

Keywords

• resource-based cities|mining cities|urban shrinkage|resource industry dependence|county area|mediation effect model|china