Modélisation de l’impact du changement climatique sur trois aires de distribution végétales dans le Mercantour

Abstract

The latest IPCC report presents numerous consequences of temperature elevations on terrestrial biodiversity. Changes in distribution areas of plant species are the result of different processes including reproduction and mortality. The aim of this study is to present the contribution of the modeling approach in the definition of future plants species distribution areas in the Mercantour-Argentera Mountains. Species studied are Dryas octopetala, Pinus cembra and Pinus uncinata. The method developed here allows, with botanical observations from the SILENE database and ecological descriptors (climate, geology, topography), to give a spatial definition of distribution areas in order to begin the study of changes and to integrate it into a dynamic model as seed producing center. Therefore, the method tries to characterize the changes in distribution areas through the simulation of the complex processes of seed production, dissemination, germination and mortality.

Keywords

• Biogeography
• Modeling
• Climate change
• Distribution areas
• Mountains