Utilization of Scenarios for the Operational Concepts Development

Abstract

The paper deals with the issue of the purpose, creation and practical use of scenarios during operational concepts development. The scenarios reflect the fundamental characteristics of the environment in which the military missions will be conducted in the next 15–20 years. Scenarios allow identifying and quantifying the future capabilities of the Armed forces in a complex, dynamic, changeable, unstable and hardly predictable operating environment. The paper defines the type of scenarios useful for creation of operational concepts and requirements that must be met for a successful process of scenarios development. Further, it describes the process of scenarios development, the main risks associated with this process while suggesting the possibility of reducing the rate of those risks.

Keywords

• Operational Environment; Operational Concepts; Scenarios; Trends; Uncertainties; Key Factors; Generic Planning Situations; Threats; Risks.