Research Advances and Challenges of Reliability Assessment of Complex Equipment Based on Small Sample Failure Data

Abstract

With the development of complex equipment which integrates mechanical, electrical, hydraulic and other technologies towards the direction of high reliability, long life and high cost, small sample failure data, even no failure data, appears in the reliability timing censoring test frequently. On the basis of explaining the characteristics of machine-level and system-level complex equipment with multi-source reliability data, uncertain data information, and continuous execution of tasks, this paper summarizes the research status of reliability evaluation of small sample failure data from three aspects of prior information, data expansion and multi-source information fusion. The shortcomings of the existing research are summarized, and the development trend and research focus of reliability assessment of complex equipment in the future are put forward. A new idea of applying Bayesian network to quantify the uncertainty in complex equipment is proposed, and the research of selective maintenance optimization on group equipment based on reliability assessment is carried out.

Keywords

• |small sample|reliability assessment|uncertainty|bayesian network|selective maintenance