Strategic management optimization of the regional agricultural sector by means of modern forecast modeling instruments

Abstract

Under the conditions of Ukraine’s integration into the world economic space, the agricultural sector is one of the priority and strategically important sectors of the national economy. The research objective is to substantiate the theoretical, methodological and methodical principles of strategic management of economic development of the regional agricultural sector and to solve actual problems in order to optimize strategic management based on cognitive scenarios of supply and demand balancing in the agrarian market, probabilistic modeling, which allows the regions to identify the “growth points”, to optimize the sectoral structures of the economy, to improve the quality and efficiency of the developed and implemented scenarios and the strategies of the agroindustrial production development in the region.As a result of the research, a scenario-probabilistic model of economic development of the regional agrarian sector was proposed, which allows to identify the priority directions for the long-term perspective, to adjust the direction of development if necessary, to explore different scenarios of the development of events on the priorities change at the macro level in the conditions of uncertainty and risks.Thus, the practical value of the research enables to predict the strategic development of the agricultural sector of the region and its individual areas by using a systematic approach and compositions of methodological approaches to analysis and forecasting, considering it as a complex and structured system.

Keywords

• forecasting
• methods
• modeling
• planning
• strategy