Bìznes Inform (Jan 2018)
The Dynamics of Electricity Production in Ukraine and its Forecasting
Abstract
The article is aimed at identifying the trend relevance of electricity generation by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in Ukraine on the basis of fractal analysis together with its forecasting. The publication carries out a fractal analysis of electricity production by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in the period from 2001 to 2017, and makes forecast for 2018. For analyzing of such time series, the publication uses the method of Harold Edwin Hirst (R/S-analysis). The Hirst method allows to analyze time series and distinguish random and fractal time series, as well as make conclusions about the presence of non-recurrent cycles, long-term memory, etc. A fractal analysis of time series of electricity production by thermal, nuclear, and hydro power plants in 2001–2017 in Ukraine allowed to determine that they come under antipersistent. Because the antipersistent time series have a quality of «return to average», the exponential smoothing and moving average methods have been selected for the forecasting.
