Research on short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting model based on multi-strategy improved squirrel search algorithm and support vector machine

Abstract

Abstract Solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation is susceptible to environmental factors, and redundant features can disrupt prediction accuracy. To achieve rapid and accurate online prediction, we propose a method that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with a multi-strategy improved Squirrel Search Algorithm (SSA) to optimize Support Vector Machine (MISSA-SVM) for prediction. Initially, to mitigate the impact of redundant features on prediction accuracy, KPCA is employed for feature dimensionality reduction. Subsequently, SVM is suggested as the foundational algorithm for constructing the prediction model. Furthermore, to address the influence of hyperparameter selection on model performance, SSA is introduced for optimizing SVM hyperparameters, with the aim of establishing the optimal prediction model. Moreover, to enhance solution efficiency and accuracy, a multi-strategy approach termed MISSA is proposed, which integrates Population Initialization based on the Tent map, Nonlinear Predator Presence Probability, Chaotic-based Dynamic Opposition-based Learning, and Selection Strategy, to refine SSA. Finally, through case studies, the performance of MISSA optimization is assessed using challenging CEC2021 test functions, demonstrating its high optimization performance, stability, and significance. Subsequently, the performance of the prediction model is validated using two datasets, showcasing that the proposed prediction method achieves high accuracy and robust prediction stability.

Keywords

• PV power generation forecasting
• Support vector machine regression
• Squirrel search algorithm
• Multi strategy improvement method
• Principal component analysis