Transformer-Based Traffic Flow Prediction Considering Spatio-Temporal Correlations of Bridge Networks

Abstract

With the widespread implementation of bridge structural health monitoring (SHM) systems, monitored bridge networks have gradually formed. Understanding vehicle loads and considering spatio-temporal correlations within bridge networks is critical for structural condition assessment and maintenance decision making. This study aims to predict traffic flows by investigating traffic flow correlations within a bridge network using multi-bridge data, thereby supporting bridge network-level SHM. A transformer-based traffic flow prediction model considering spatio-temporal correlations of bridge networks (ST-TransNet) is proposed. It integrates external factors (processed via fully connected networks) and multi-period traffic flows of input bridges (captured by self-attention encoders) to generate traffic flow predictions through a self-attention decoder. Validated using weigh-in-motion data from an 8-bridge network, the proposed ST-TransNet reduces prediction root mean square error (RMSE) to 12.76 vehicles/10 min, outperforming a series of baselines—SVR, CNN, BiLSTM, CNN&BiLSTM, ST-ResNet, transformer, and STGCN—with significant relative reductions of 40.5%, 36.9%, 36.6%, 37.3%, 35.6%, 31.1%, and 22.8%, respectively. Ablation studies confirm the contribution of each component of the external factors and multi-period traffic flows, particularly the recent traffic flow data. The proposed ST-TransNet effectively captures underlying the spatio-temporal correlations of traffic flow within bridge networks, offering valuable insights for enhancing bridge assessment and maintenance.

Keywords

• traffic flow prediction
• bridge network
• transformer
• spatio-temporal correlations modeling
• structural health monitoring