Evaluating Transit-Oriented Development Performance: An Integrated Approach Using Multisource Big Data and Interpretable Machine Learning

Abstract

Transit-oriented development (TOD) strategies on subway stations have been implemented in many high-density cities globally to enhance public transportation system efficiency and promote public transportation mobility. Focusing on the developments of intricate metropolitan systems, researchers attempted to elicit “latent rules” by proposing a generic TOD performance evaluation system. This study suggests a multi-indicator TOD performance evaluation method based on a multi-indicator approach grounded in the analysis of multisource urban big data, revealing the role of rail transit TOD station characteristics on critical indicators of station operation through an interpretable machine learning approach. Using Shanghai, China, as a case study, the methodology employed 26 widely used indicators related to TOD development and utilized a BP neural network model trained in a sample space of 77 rail transit TOD stations, aiming to predict the four critical station performance indicators. The robustness of the explanatory variables in the model has been verified by various methods, affirming their consistencies with the development characteristics of the city and the stations. The performance assessment methodology achieves significant predictive results and is computationally feasible, with potential values in applications in other high-density cities worldwide.