The Tragedy of Lebanon

Abstract

I. Since the end of World War 11, approximately eighty new states have been established. Only two, Pakistan and Cyprus, have undergone the agony of dismemberment when Bangladesh broke off in 1973 and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was declared in 1983. The world may now be witnessing the possible breakup of yet a third state: Lebanon, whose disintegration has been accelerated since the June 1982 Israeli invasion. Shortly after the invasion began, Henry Kissinger assessed its consequence for Lebanon’s future, concluding, “It is neither desirable nor possible to return to the status quo ante in Lebanon.” One possible outcome was that some Syrian and Israeli forces would remain in the northern and southern ends, respectively, and the central government’s authority would ostensibly cover the rest of the country. Implicit in the Kissinger diagnosis is the possibility of eventual partition. Though the gloomy assessment by the “wizard” of US. foreign policy should by no means be construed as a portent of an official shift away from the publicly stated US. support of “Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” a shadow was cast on the country’s prospects. Subsequent developments have seemed to indicate that Lebanon’s demise looms larger than at any time since the beginning of the civil war in 1975-76. For over a year and a half national fragmentation has proceeded inexorably. What many people once could imagine only with difficulty, they now acknowledge: in reality, Lebanon is facing possible death. The South (35 percent of the land area) is occupied by Israel; the North and the Biqa’ (45 percent) are controlled by Syria; Kasrawan (15 percent) is controlled by the Christian Maronite forces (the Lebanese Front forces), which are not subject to the government’s authority. The rest of the country-beleaguered Beirut and environs-was until the February 1984 breakdown under the government’s shaky control supported by symbolic US., French, Italian, and British units. The Multi-National Force (MNF) was subject to increasing attacks by Muslim leftist factions, as witnessed in the October 23 bombing of the quarters of U.S. Marines and French troops. Thus, instead of keeping peace, the MNF became ,a partisan force trying to protect itself. The US. and French forces in particular seemed to have outlived their usefulness as “peacekeepers.” Recurrent fighting in southern Beirut and in the adjacent Chouf mountains, that pitted Christian Maronites and army units against Shi‘ite and Druse Muslims constantly threatened the existence of President Amin Gemayel’s government and consequently a renewal of the civil war. This situation culminated in February 1984 in the resignation of the Shafiq al-Wazzan’s cabinet, the loss of government’s control of West Beirut to Muslim-leftist militias, and the imminent collapse of Amin Gemayel’s presidency ...